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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 88

New England Patriots 14 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NE 49 for 18 yards (48-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model