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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

DAL
37.7%
SF
62.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL on 7 more days rest than SF
  • SF offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DAL

Daron Bland CB Out Foot
Micah Parsons DE Out Ankle
John Stephens TE Out Knee
Jordan Phillips DT Out Wrist
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Shoulder
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Shoulder

SF

Kevin Givens DT Out Groin
Jauan Jennings WR Out Hip
Jake Moody K Out Right Ankle
George Kittle TE Questionable Foot
Deommodore Lenoir CB Questionable Illness
George Odum S Questionable Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 24
–
SF 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 FG SF (7:19) 41-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 11:02 TD DAL (11:02) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 02:59 FG DAL (2:59) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – SF 3
  • Q2 01:35 FG SF (1:35) 41-A.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 10 – SF 6
  • Q3 13:00 TD SF (13:00) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – SF 12
  • Q3 07:16 TD SF (7:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – SF 19
  • Q3 00:40 TD SF (:40) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – SF 26
  • Q4 08:04 TD DAL (8:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – SF 27
  • Q4 04:30 FG SF (4:30) 41-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 17 – SF 30
  • Q4 03:36 TD DAL (3:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Collins]. DAL 23 – SF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:53) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to SF 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-J.Cowing to SF 13 for 6 yards (80-R.Flournoy).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (7:19) 41-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:44) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-T.Pepper. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 35 for 13 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles; 53-D.Winters). Penalty on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on SF-54-F.Warner, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 46%

    (6:35) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (2:59) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%

    (1:35) 41-A.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:01) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to SF 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (:20) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:20) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to SF 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-J.Cowing to SF 25 for 16 yards (44-T.Sieg; 40-H.Luepke).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:41) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (12:05) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 41%

    (10:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin to SF 29 for 16 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (4:30) 41-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:15) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-18-C.Conley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Brooks.