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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model