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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.08 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP