Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-T.Pepper. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 35 for 13 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles; 53-D.Winters). Penalty on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on SF-54-F.Warner, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model