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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model