Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Jayden Daniels (WAS): +0.286 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- WAS defense: +0.217 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- ARI offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
WAS
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:57 TD ARI (9:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – ARI 6
- Q1 05:17 TD WAS (5:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – ARI 7
- Q2 10:26 TD WAS (10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ARI 7
- Q2 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 3-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 17 – ARI 7
- Q3 13:57 TD WAS (13:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – ARI 7
- Q3 05:19 FG WAS (5:19) 3-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 27 – ARI 7
- Q3 00:15 TD ARI (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – ARI 13
- Q4 08:35 TD WAS (8:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 33 – ARI 14
- Q4 04:33 TD WAS (4:33) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-26-J.McNichols, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 41 – ARI 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(9:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%
(2:48) 12-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EPp(convert) 75%
(9:04) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:42) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:18) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to ARI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 30 for 4 yards (82-B.Sinnott).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 73%
(:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at WAS 42 for -7 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 61%
(7:32) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 26-J.McNichols up the middle to ARI 25 for 15 yards (16-M.Melton, 3-B.Baker).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 19Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%
(5:19) 3-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%
(2:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at WAS 32 for 19 yards.