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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.29 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model