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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 77

Washington Commanders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to ARI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 30 for 4 yards (82-B.Sinnott).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.68 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model