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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.85 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model