4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 12-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model