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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
62.9%
MIN
37.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.288 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Christian McCaffrey RB Out Calf
Talanoa Hufanga S Doubtful Knee
Dee Winters LB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Jordan Addison WR Out Ankle
Ed Ingram G Questionable Triceps
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Elbow
Harrison Smith S Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:48 FG MIN (4:48) 16-W.Reichard 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. SF 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 09:51 TD MIN (9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 02:00 TD SF (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. SF 7 – MIN 13
  • Q3 06:53 TD MIN (6:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 83-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – MIN 19
  • Q4 10:21 TD SF (10:21) 24-J.Mason right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – MIN 20
  • Q4 03:33 FG MIN (3:33) 16-W.Reichard 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. SF 14 – MIN 23
  • Q4 01:15 FG SF (1:15) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:35) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-B.Powell to MIN 15 for 10 yards (88-J.Tonges).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (9:43) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 36%

    (7:04) 3-M.Wishnowsky punt is BLOCKED by 30-C.Ham, Center-46-T.Pepper, RECOVERED by MIN-26-Th.Jackson at SF 39. 26-Th.Jackson to SF 24 for 15 yards (82-E.Saubert).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:48) 16-W.Reichard 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 49%

    (13:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to MIN 20 for 25 yards (24-C.Bynum).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (10:31) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 15-J.Jennings (43-A.Van Ginkel, 22-H.Smith) [92-J.Williams].

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 54%

    (6:39) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right tackle to MIN 42 for 1 yard (51-B.Cashman). Penalty on SF-11-B.Aiyuk, Illegal Shift, declined.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:42) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to SF 34, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:25) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:54) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SF 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, touched at SF 16, recovered by SF-22-I.Yiadom at SF 13.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (3:33) 16-W.Reichard 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (1:15) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.