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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model