Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 13 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(7:54) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SF 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, touched at SF 16, recovered by SF-22-I.Yiadom at SF 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model