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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right tackle to MIN 42 for 1 yard (51-B.Cashman). Penalty on SF-11-B.Aiyuk, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model