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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 20 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 16-W.Reichard 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model