CHI @ GB — 4th & Data

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HC Matt Eberflus

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HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2024-01-07 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CHI

35.0%

65.0%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.152 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.093 EPA/dropback
CHI defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
GB defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22

–

GB 25

Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CHI

Darnell Mooney WR Out Concussion

Jaylon Johnson CB Doubtful Shoulder

Khalil Herbert RB Questionable Back

Patrick Scales LS Questionable Foot

Cole Kmet TE Questionable Knee

Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Calf

Lucas Patrick C Questionable Calf

GB

A.J. Dillon RB Out Thumb

Rudy Ford S Out Hamstring

Isaiah McDuffie LB Doubtful Concussion

Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

Luke Tenuta T Questionable Ankle

Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Chest

Emanuel Wilson RB Questionable Shoulder

Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Knee

Luke Musgrave TE Questionable kidney

Jayden Reed WR Questionable Chest

Preston Smith LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 9

–

GB 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:59 FG CHI (8:59) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – GB 0
Q2 07:25 TD GB (7:25) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – GB 6
Q2 01:20 FG CHI (1:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 6 – GB 7
Q3 09:52 TD GB (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 13
Q4 13:07 FG CHI (13:07) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 9 – GB 14
Q4 10:57 FG GB (10:57) 17-A.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CHI 9 – GB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 16 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%

(8:59) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q1 GB 4th & 14 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

(2:39) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

(14:09) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(5:46) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 44 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith, 25-K.Nixon).
Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

(1:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

(5:04) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

(13:07) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

(10:57) 17-A.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.