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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 21

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model