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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 17

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model