4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model