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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 17-A.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP