4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -14.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SF
74.3%
WAS
25.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.109 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.306 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 27
–
WAS 19
Projected margin: SF by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Ji'Ayir Brown S Out Knee
Ross Dwelley TE Out Ankle
Jauan Jennings WR Out Concussion
Jaylon Moore T Out Concussion
Aaron Banks G Questionable Toe
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Illness
Jordan Mason RB Questionable Illness
Danny Gray WR Questionable Shoulder
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Knee

WAS

Percy Butler S Out Wrist
Kendall Fuller CB Out Knee
Tyler Larsen C Out Knee
Charles Leno T Out Calf
Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Concussion
Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Wylie T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
WAS 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 FG SF (8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 01:35 TD SF (1:35) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – WAS 0
  • Q2 12:10 FG WAS (12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way. SF 10 – WAS 3
  • Q2 04:37 TD WAS (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:22 FG SF (:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – WAS 10
  • Q3 05:46 TD SF (5:46) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – WAS 10
  • Q4 09:30 TD SF (9:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – WAS 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:21) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to SF 20, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 37 for 17 yards (87-J.Bates).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 25%

    (9:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:10) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%

    (4:01) 25-E.Mitchell left end to WAS 2 for -1 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 95 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:24) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to SF 47, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 47 for no gain (3-B.Pringle).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 2 yards (0-S.Womack).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 26 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).