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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP