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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 1
San Francisco 49ers 27 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(4:01) 25-E.Mitchell left end to WAS 2 for -1 yards (51-D.Mayo).
The Three Options
GO
+4.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.03 EP
KICK
+1.94 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
