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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model