Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(7:21) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to SF 20, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 37 for 17 yards (87-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model