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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Saturday 2023-12-23 · 16:30 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CIN
59.9%
PIT
40.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Mason Rudolph (PIT) -0.129 vs Jake Browning (CIN) +0.190 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Mason Rudolph in place of Mitchell Trubisky)
  • CIN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Mason Rudolph (PIT) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
PIT 21
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Ja'Marr Chase WR Out Shoulder

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Knee
Trenton Thompson S Out Neck
Kenny Pickett QB Out Ankle
Elijah Riley S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 11
–
PIT 34

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:57 TD PIT (10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 14:26 TD PIT (14:26) (Shotgun) 19-C.Austin left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 13
  • Q2 07:13 TD PIT (7:13) 22-N.Harris right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG PIT (:04) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 0 – PIT 24
  • Q3 11:22 TD CIN (11:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 24
  • Q3 09:47 TD PIT (9:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 8 – PIT 30
  • Q3 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 11 – PIT 31
  • Q4 07:00 FG PIT (7:00) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 11 – PIT 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 25%

    (11:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to PIT 48, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-33-N.Scott.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 18 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 33%

    (11:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (24-J.Porter) [16-M.Jack].

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (:04) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 35 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (6:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (:03) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 5 yards (13-M.Boykin).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (7:00) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 17 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:09) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to PIT 4, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-12-S.Jackson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 92 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to PIT 48, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-87-R.Williams.