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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 8

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model