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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model