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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to PIT 48, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-33-N.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model