4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.36 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP