4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2023-11-30 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SEA
22.0%
DAL
78.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 19
–
DAL 29
Projected margin: DAL by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SEA

Phil Haynes G Out Toe
Kenneth Walker RB Doubtful Oblique
Dareke Young WR Doubtful Abdomen
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Ribs
Will Dissly TE Questionable Hip
Leonard Williams DT Questionable Ankle

DAL

Peyton Hendershot TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 35
–
DAL 41

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 FG DAL (9:13) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. SEA 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 07:37 TD SEA (7:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DAL 3
  • Q1 04:52 TD DAL (4:52) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DAL 9
  • Q2 11:40 TD DAL (11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DAL 16
  • Q2 08:56 TD SEA (8:56) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – DAL 17
  • Q2 01:33 FG DAL (1:33) 17-B.Aubrey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on SEA-93-Ca.Young, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 14 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:07 TD SEA (:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, declined. SEA 20 – DAL 20
  • Q3 10:05 TD SEA (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 27 – DAL 20
  • Q3 03:46 TD DAL (3:46) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – DAL 26
  • Q4 14:22 TD SEA (14:22) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 34 – DAL 27
  • Q4 11:27 FG DAL (11:27) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. SEA 35 – DAL 30
  • Q4 04:41 TD DAL (4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 35 – DAL 36
  • Q4 01:46 FG DAL (1:46) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. SEA 35 – DAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:13) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%

    (1:01) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 43%

    (14:18) (No Huddle) 20-T.Pollard left end pushed ob at SEA 36 for 11 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (1:33) 17-B.Aubrey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on SEA-93-Ca.Young, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 81%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (11:27) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 45%

    (7:08) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 33%

    (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (1:46) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 35%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Dallas [11-M.Parsons].