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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 38 – Seattle Seahawks 35

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model