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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model