4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (No Huddle) 20-T.Pollard left end pushed ob at SEA 36 for 11 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.12 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model