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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Dallas Cowboys 41

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Dallas [11-M.Parsons].

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.47 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model