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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Friday 2023-11-24 · 15:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -9.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

MIA
67.7%
NYJ
32.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tim Boyle (NYJ) -0.104 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.207 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Tim Boyle in place of Zach Wilson)
  • MIA offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 25
–
NYJ 18
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIA

Robert Jones G Doubtful Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Back
Devon Achane RB Questionable Knee
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Chase Claypool WR Questionable Knee
Lester Cotton G Questionable Hip
Robert Hunt G Questionable Hamstring
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Foot
Austin Jackson T Questionable Oblique
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Michael Carter CB Doubtful Hamstring
Mekhi Becton T Questionable Ankle
Duane Brown T Questionable Hip
Billy Turner T Questionable Finger
Kenny Yeboah TE Questionable Hamstring
Sam Eguavoen LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34
–
NYJ 13

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:29 FG MIA (1:29) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 08:25 TD MIA (8:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 01:05 TD NYJ (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 0-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 30. 26-B.Echols for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 00:02 TD MIA (:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 11:20 FG MIA (11:20) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 20 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 31-R.Mostert right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 04:41 TD NYJ (4:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 27 – NYJ 12
  • Q4 03:44 TD MIA (3:44) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 33 – NYJ 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (1-A.Gardner).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:07) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 44 for 9 yards (19-I.Charles).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (1:29) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:32) 5-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to MIA 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 40 for 19 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:20) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 18 for 8 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell. Penalty on NYJ-19-I.Charles, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:14) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 27 for 12 yards (55-C.Surratt).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

    (11:20) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to MIA 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 18. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 16 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles). PENALTY on MIA-89-J.Hill, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 16.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:48) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 41%

    (11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to MIA 35 for 9 yards (55-J.Baker).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 48-N.Bawden to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (29-B.Jones).