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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 87

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 44 for 9 yards (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 45, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP