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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model