Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell. Penalty on NYJ-19-I.Charles, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model