Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 70

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to MIA 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 18. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 16 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles). PENALTY on MIA-89-J.Hill, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.02 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model