Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.172 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.095 EPA/dropback
- HOU offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
ARI
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:36 TD ARI (13:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 4-R.Moore for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – HOU 0
- Q1 05:54 TD HOU (5:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – HOU 6
- Q1 01:26 FG ARI (1:26) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – HOU 7
- Q2 11:27 TD HOU (11:27) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – HOU 13
- Q2 00:34 TD HOU (:34) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – HOU 20
- Q3 02:57 TD ARI (2:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – HOU 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 95%
(9:32) (No Huddle) 22-M.Boone left end to ARI 15 for no gain (7-K.White, 3-B.Baker).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:55) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 82-S.Sims to HOU 39 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 63%
(1:26) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 82-S.Sims to HOU 26 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%
(9:19) 16-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 46 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 42.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%
(12:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to HOU 21 for 2 yards (4-T.Thomas; 24-D.Stingley).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 74%
(10:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ARI 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-A.Hamilton MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-20-K.Hollman at ARI 25. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%
(7:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.McBride.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%
(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].