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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 15

Houston Texans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (No Huddle) 22-M.Boone left end to ARI 15 for no gain (7-K.White, 3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model