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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 30

Houston Texans 21 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 16-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.57 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model