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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown (21-S.Nelson) [51-W.Anderson].

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP