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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 82-S.Sims to HOU 39 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.52 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model