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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CHI
30.4%
LAC
69.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.110 vs Tyson Bagent (CHI) -0.246 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CHI

Nate Davis G Out Ankle
Justin Fields QB Out right Thumb
Terell Smith CB Out Illness
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Illness
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Foot
Dan Feeney C Questionable Knee

LAC

Gerald Everett TE Questionable Hip
Alohi Gilman S Questionable Heel
Jalen Guyton WR Questionable Knee
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Knee
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Hamstring
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 13
–
LAC 30

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 TD LAC (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 00:49 TD LAC (:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-S.Fehoko for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – LAC 13
  • Q2 08:55 FG LAC (8:55) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. CHI 0 – LAC 17
  • Q2 01:52 TD CHI (1:52) (Shotgun) 25-D.Evans right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – LAC 17
  • Q2 00:11 TD LAC (:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – LAC 23
  • Q3 08:56 FG LAC (8:56) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. CHI 7 – LAC 27
  • Q3 03:05 FG LAC (3:05) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. CHI 7 – LAC 30
  • Q4 02:22 TD CHI (2:22) (No Huddle) 17-T.Bagent up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – LAC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:17) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on CHI-12-V.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 88%

    (8:55) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 72%

    (8:56) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:24) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to LAC 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-D.Davis to LAC 32 for 6 yards (44-N.Sewell).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 20 for 14 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:57) 23-R.Johnson right guard to CHI 29 for no gain (97-J.Bosa; 51-S.Joseph).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (3:05) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 87%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right intended for 25-D.Evans INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 24. 26-A.Samuel pushed ob at LAC 27 for 3 yards (85-C.Kmet). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 25-D.Evans (26-A.Samuel).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 72%

    (11:44) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to CHI 35 for no gain (22-E.Hicks). Penalty on LAC-88-T.McKitty, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

    (9:04) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James (32-A.Gilman) at LAC 19. 3-D.James pushed ob at LAC 25 for 6 yards (13-T.Scott).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-D.Evans up the middle to LAC 1 for 4 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu, 31-N.Niemann).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 58%

    (:30) 16-J.Scott punts 25 yards to CHI 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.