Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Chicago Bears 7

(6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 20 for 14 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model