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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on CHI-12-V.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model