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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model